Protests and bloodshed have toppled Sheikh Hasina's regime, but the way forward is far from certain. Here are four possible scenarios.
The uprising in Bangladesh has been a political earthquake. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, in power for the last 15 years, has fled, and leaders of the ruling Awami League are in hiding or have also absconded.
Economist and Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus was picked by Bangladesh President Mohammed Shahabuddin to lead a new interim government. For the moment, a feeling of hope and elation has swept across much of the country.
But as with an earthquake, once the dust has settled, the foundations will remain largely the same as before.
To gauge where the country might move in the immediate and not-so-immediate future, there are a few fundamentals that need to be recognised.
The people who rose up consisted of students and some teachers, large groups of other young people, urban poor and political opposition groups. They represented widespread sentiments.
Dictatorial, violent and smug, Sheikh Hasina's regime was no longer able to deliver on its promise of economic development and criticism of her gross human rights violations became increasingly public and bold.
The popularity of the protests against Sheikh Hasina should not, however, obscure the fact that "the people" are not of one mind. The protests were driven by frustration and anger, not by any explicit alternative political vision.
There is also no formal organisation behind the uprising. It was an extremely powerful and driven movement, which may prove to be too exhausting to hold up in the long term.
All of this did happen suddenly, but in another sense it was building for a long time.
The country has seen several popular protest movements over the last decade - Shahbagh, Hefazat, road safety, no VAT on education, and the quota movement in 2018.
In addition, the low turnout in elections, low tax compliance and various other forms of foot-dragging and reluctance indicated that Sheikh Hasina's regime lacked widespread legitimacy.
Surveys have shown that an overwhelming majority of Bangladeshis want democracy, human rights and to be able to vote for their representatives - and to criticise them when called for. These are fundamental facts of the country.
Dr Mubashar Hasan is a postdoctoral research fellow at the Department of Culture Studies and Oriental Languages, University of Oslo. His research was funded by the Norwegian Research Council.
Komentarze